Explain what's base rate fallacy and list five specific examples of how politicians use it for campaigns.

The base rate f alla cy , also known as base rate neglect or base rate bias , is a cogn itive error that occurs when the base or overall rate of an event is ignored , and only the conditional or specific rate is considered . In other words , it ' s the mistake of foc using on the probability of an event occurr ing in a particular group , rather than the overall probability of the event . \n \n Here are five specific examples of how polit icians use the base rate f alla cy in their campaign s : \n \n 1 . F ear - m ong ering : Polit icians may use the base rate f alla cy to create a sense of ur gency and fear among vot ers by highlight ing the specific negative events that have occurred in a particular group , without considering the overall low probability of those events occurr ing . For example , a politician may claim that a certain group is responsible for most crime in the area , without considering the overall low probability of any individual being a criminal . \n 2 . Sc ap ego ating : Polit icians may use the base rate f alla cy to bl ame a specific group for a particular problem , without considering the overall low probability of that group being responsible for the problem . For example , a politician may bl ame a certain eth nic group for the country ' s economic problems , without considering the overall low probability of that group being responsible for the problems . \n 3 . False caus ality : Polit icians may use the base rate f alla cy to suggest a specific cause - and - effect relationship between two events , without considering the overall low probability of that relationship being true . For example , a politician may claim that a certain policy will reduce crime , without considering the overall low probability of that policy being effective in reducing crime . \n 4 . St raw man argument : Polit icians may use the base rate f alla cy to create a st raw man argument by o vers impl ifying or mis re present ing their oppon ent ' s position , and then attack ing that mis re presentation . For example , a politician may claim that their oppon ent wants to raise tax es on the middle class , without considering the overall low probability of that being their oppon ent ' s actual position . \n 5 . Ad hom in em attack : Polit icians may use the base rate f alla cy to attack their oppon ent ' s character or personal qual ities , rather than address ing the subst ance of their arguments . For example , a politician may attack their oppon ent ' s intelligence or integrity , without considering the overall low probability of those qual ities being relevant to the issue at hand . </s>