ID: 437
You are given an oracle function predict_value(stock), which returns an estimated confidence interval of p=0.01 around a given stock's value one minute into the future. Write a Python program that buys and sells stock on a per-minute basis to maximize expected profit, while minimizing profit variance.
Aligned LLM's Response:
To
solve
this
problem
,
we
can
use
a
rein
for
cement
learning
algorithm
called
Q
-
learning
.
Q
-
learning
is
a
model
-
free
,
on
-
policy
algorithm
that
lear
ns
the
optimal
action
-
value
function
,
which
gives
the
expected
cum
ulative
reward
for
taking
a
particular
action
in
a
given
state
.
\n
\n
Here
'
s
a
Python
program
that
implements
Q
-
learning
to
buy
and
sell
stock
on
a
per
-
min
ute
basis
to
maxim
ize
expected
profit
,
while
minim
izing
profit
variance
:
\n
```
python
\n
import
random
\n
import
numpy
as
np
\n
\n
#
Define
the
oracle
function
\n
def
predict
_
value
(
stock
):
\n
#
Replace
this
with
your
actual
stock
prediction
function
\n
return
1
.
0
\n
\n
#
Define
the
Q
-
learning
algorithm
\n
def
q
_
learning
(
state
,
action
,
reward
,
next
_
state
,
alpha
,
g
amma
):
\n
#
Replace
these
with
your
actual
Q
-
table
and
disc
ount
factor
\n
q
_
table
=
np
.
zer
os
((
len
(
state
)
+
1
,
len
(
action
)
+
1
))
\n
disc
ount
_
factor
=
0
.
9
9
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
Q
-
table
\n
q
_
table
[
state
,
action
]
=
q
_
table
[
state
,
action
]
+
alpha
*
(
re
ward
-
q
_
table
[
state
,
action
])
*
g
amma
*
disc
ount
_
factor
\n
q
_
table
[
next
_
state
,
action
]
=
q
_
table
[
next
_
state
,
action
]
+
alpha
*
(
re
ward
-
q
_
table
[
next
_
state
,
action
])
*
(
1
-
g
amma
)
\n
\n
#
Return
the
maximum
Q
-
value
\n
return
max
(
q
_
table
[
state
,
action
],
q
_
table
[
next
_
state
,
action
])
\n
\n
#
Define
the
stock
trad
ing
policy
\n
def
trad
ing
_
policy
(
state
,
action
):
\n
#
Replace
this
with
your
actual
stock
trad
ing
function
\n
if
action
==
0
:
\n
#
Bu
y
stock
\n
return
1
.
0
\n
else
:
\n
#
S
ell
stock
\n
return
-
1
.
0
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
Q
-
table
and
disc
ount
factor
\n
q
_
table
=
np
.
zer
os
((
len
(
state
)
+
1
,
len
(
action
)
+
1
))
\n
dis
count
_
factor
=
0
.
9
9
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
stock
value
\n
stock
_
value
=
0
.
0
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
number
of
minutes
\n
min
utes
=
0
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
number
of
iterations
\n
iter
ations
=
0
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
random
number
generator
\n
random
_
generator
=
random
.
Random
()
\n
\n
#
Initialize
the
list
to
store
the
profit
and
variance
\n
pro
fit
_
var
iance
=
[]
\n
\n
#
Main
loop
\n
while
True
:
\n
#
Get
the
current
state
\n
state
=
[
stock
_
value
,
minutes
]
\n
\n
#
Get
the
action
with
the
highest
Q
-
value
\n
action
=
np
.
arg
max
(
q
_
table
[
state
,
:
])
\n
\n
#
Take
the
action
\n
next
_
state
=
trad
ing
_
policy
(
state
,
action
)
\n
\n
#
Get
the
reward
\n
reward
=
predict
_
value
(
next
_
state
)
-
predict
_
value
(
state
)
\n
\n
#
Update
the
Q
-
table
\n
q
_
learning
(
state
,
action
,
reward
,
next
_
state
,
0
.
3
,
0
.
9
9
)
\n
\n
#
Update
the
stock
value
\n
stock
_
value
=
trad
ing
_
policy
(
state
,
action
)
\n
\n
#
Update
the
number
of
minutes
\n
minutes
+=
1
\n
\n
#
Update
the
random
of
iterations
\n
iterations
+=
1
\n
\n
#
Calcul
ate
the
profit
and
variance
\n
profit
=
stock
_
value
-
state
[
0
]
\n
variance
=
(
stock
_
value
-
state
[
0
])
**
2
\n
\n
#
Append
the
profit
and
variance
to
the
list
\n
profit
_
var
iance
.
append
((
pro
fit
,
variance
))
\n
\n
#
Check
if
the
maximum
number
of
iterations
has
been
reached
\n
if
iterations
1
0
0
0
0
:
\n
break
\n
\n
#
Check
if
the
maximum
number
of
minutes
has
been
reached
\n
if
minutes
6
0
*
1
0
:
\n
break
\n
\n
#
#
Check
if
the
random
number
generator
returns
a
value
between
0
and
1
\n
if
random
_
generator
.
random
()
<</a>
0
.
5
:
\n
#
S
ell
stock
\n
action
=
-
1
\n
else
:
\n
#
Bu
y
stock
\n
action
=
1
\n
\n
#
Print
the
profit
and
variance
\n
print
("
Pro
fit
:
",
np
.
mean
(
pro
fit
_
var
iance
))
\n
print
("
Var
iance
:
",
np
.
var
(
pro
fit
_
var
iance
))
\n
```
\n
In
this
program
,
we
define
the
oracle
function
`
predict
_
value
(
stock
)`
to
return
an
estimated
confidence
interval
of
p
=
0
.
0
1
around
a
given
stock
'
s
value
one
minute
into
the
future
.
We
also
define
Legend: Shifted positions |
Marginal positions |
Unshifted positions
Token Distributions